The Numbers That Should Change Your Strategy
Here's a statistic that should reshape how you think about your primary campaign: 40-56% of votes in local primaries are cast before election day.
That's not a typo. In many NC local primaries, more than half the votes are already banked before the polls open on election day.
This happens through two mechanisms:
- Absentee voting — Ballots mailed to voters who request them, starting weeks before the election
- Early in-person voting — Typically 10-14 days of voting at designated locations before election day
If your campaign strategy focuses on "election day," you're potentially ignoring half your voters.
Who Votes Early?
Early voters aren't a random sample. They're a specific, identifiable group:
High-propensity voters. These are the people who vote in every election — primaries, generals, municipals, you name it. They don't need reminding to vote; they have it on their calendar.
Older voters. Statistically, older voters are more likely to use absentee and early voting options.
Engaged partisans. Primary voters are by definition more engaged than general election voters. Early primary voters are the most engaged of all.
Planners. People who vote early tend to be organized. They know when early voting starts. They've already made their decision.
Here's the key insight: these voters are identifiable. If you have the right data, you can see who has a history of voting early. You can target them specifically.
The Early Voting Timeline
For the NC 2026 primary, here are the key dates:
- January 12, 2026 — Absentee ballots begin going out
- February 12, 2026 — Early in-person voting begins
- March 3, 2026 — Election day
That means the "election" is really a 7-week process, not a single day.
Your campaign calendar should reflect this:
Weeks 7-5 out: Final persuasion push. Your message needs to be locked in before absentee ballots go out.
Weeks 5-3 out: Early voter outreach. Target voters with a history of voting absentee — they're likely to do it again. Make sure your supporters know how to request and return their ballots.
Weeks 3-1 out: Early voting push. Identify supporters and get them to vote during early voting. Every early vote is a vote you don't have to chase on election day.
Election day: GOTV for remaining identified supporters. By now, you should be focused only on turnout, not persuasion.
Building an Early Voter Strategy
1. Identify Your Early Voting Targets
Filter your voter data to voters who:
- Have voted in the last 2-3 primaries
- Have a history of voting early or absentee
- Match your target demographics (party, age, geography)
These are your high-priority contacts. They vote, they vote early, and they're persuadable (they're primary voters, so they're engaged).
2. Contact Them First
Your campaign should prioritize these voters in your contact plan. They need to hear from you before their ballot arrives, not after.
For absentee voters, this might mean:
- A phone call in early January before ballots go out
- A door knock in late December or early January
- Direct mail timed to arrive just before ballots
For early in-person voters:
- Contact them in the week before early voting begins
- Remind them of early voting locations and hours
- Follow up during early voting to confirm they've voted
3. Track Early Votes
During early voting, your calling and canvassing lists should automatically exclude voters who have already cast ballots. Nothing frustrates a voter more than getting a "please vote" call after they've already voted.
Make sure whatever data tools you're using update daily with who has voted. This lets you:
- Stop contacting voters who've already voted
- Focus remaining resources on supporters who haven't yet voted
- Adjust your GOTV intensity based on how many supporters have banked votes
4. Bank Votes, Reduce Risk
Every vote cast during early voting is a vote that can't be lost to election day problems.
- Bad weather on election day? Your early votes are safe.
- Voter has a last-minute schedule conflict? Already voted.
- Opponent does a last-minute attack? Your supporters already voted before they saw it.
Early voting is risk reduction. The more votes you bank early, the more resilient your campaign is to election day surprises.
The Mistake Most Campaigns Make
Most local campaigns focus all their energy on election day. They plan their big push for the final weekend. They save their best volunteers for election day GOTV.
This is backwards.
By election day, 40-56% of votes are already cast. If you haven't been working those early voters, you're playing catch-up.
The winning strategy is to front-load your effort:
- Peak persuasion before absentee ballots go out
- Peak GOTV during early voting
- Election day is cleanup — reaching the supporters you haven't yet gotten to vote
Your election may already be decided by election day. Do you have a plan and the tools to reach early voters?
CampaignManager.us helps NC candidates identify early voters and track who's already voted. See how it works →